Taking off again in 2019

For the immediate future, the low number of transactions will be holding house price inflation down, creating the expectation that house price growth will remain subdued at 4.1% into 2018 before taking off again in 2019.

The factors currently taking the steam out of the market are primarily due to government regulation, which includes the rise in stamp duty on second homes and the changes in buy-to-let mortgage tax relief.

Real income growth is being eroded by higher inflation, as the effects of the vote to leave the European Union are now being felt by households. The biggest downside risk to the UK housing market is a slowdown in consumer spending and a potential blow to consumer confidence.

Lower interest rates

Activity in the mortgage market has been sustained by the accommodative policy stance of the Bank of England which lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in August last year, resulting in lower borrowing costs.

UK house prices will growing by just 4.4% in 2017, which is the slowest rate since 2013, according to new forecasts by leading economics consultancy Cebr – the Centre for Economics and Business Research. Being part of the consultancy’s Housing Prospects publication, this forecast, sees growth at below 5% for the next two years, after which activity in the housing market is expected to pick up again.

A leading indicator for property transactions, mortgage approval numbers, have recovered from their mid-2016 low and remain on a stable level of close to, but just under 70,000 per month. Compared to the historical average, while this is a low figure, it is near the post-crisis high of 74,000 seen in early 2014.

Foreign demand
With the continuing shortage of suitable housing exerting pressure on property prices – more than 40% of local planning authorities do not know how to meet local housing demand over the next ten years according to the government’s housing white paper. Due to the low value of sterling, those at the higher end of the market, who are looking to sell can hope to benefit from a pick-up in foreign demand.  

Reduction in private buy-to-let landlords

Kay Daniel Neufeld, Economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, commented:
“Additionally, the government’s changes to the buy-to-let sector are about to swing into high gear as private BTL investors will no longer be able to fully deduct mortgage interest payments from their tax bill. Starting next month, the government mandates that only 75% of taxes on mortgage interest payments can be deducted at the full rate of 40% while the remaining 25% will be deducted at a lower rate of 20%. Over the coming years, the tax system further reduces the share of pre-tax profits that can be deducted at the higher rate until in 2020 all pre-tax profits can only be deducted at a rate of 20%, essentially shifting the tax base from profits to rental income. This means that for the higher rate paying landlord the applicable tax deduction shrinks by 50% resulting in substantially lower net profits. Cebr expects this shift in the tax regime to significantly reduce the number of private buy-to-let landlords in the market.”

Leaving the European Union

Impacting on consumers’ disposable incomes will be a combination of rising inflation and stagnating wage growth, which will lead to a halt in real income growth. This downside will put a slight dampener on housing demand in 2017 and 2018. The property market is still reeling from additional taxes, which the previous government implemented at a time when they were not expecting that the UK would find itself preparing to leave the European Union.

Direct impact
This January the number of properties available to buy was the lowest since July 2016.

Increasing the number of buyers for each property has a direct impact on the number of properties that sell for more than the original asking price.  In January 2017, more than one in 20 properties (seven per cent) sold for more.

Prospective buyers
The NAEA Propertymark reports that in January the average number of prospective buyers registered per member branch was 425. This represents a 10 per cent rise from December 2016, when on average, estate agents registered 386.

Chasing each property
In December, 41 properties were available to buy on estate agents’ books. In January this number dropped to 38, the lowest recorded since July 2016. The decrease in properties and increase in house hunters means there is an average of 11 buyers chasing each property.

Branch level
First time buyers in January accounted for three in ten (30 per cent) of sales. This was a slight decrease from December, when the group when made up to 32 per cent of all sales. The number of sales agreed at branch level increased from six in December to eight in the first month of 2017.

Heightened interest
NAEA Propertymark Chief Executive, Mark Hayward said:

“January saw a surge in buyers looking to kick off the New Year with a new home – but competition is rife with an average of 11 buyers chasing each property. The increase in the number of properties selling for more than asking price in January could be a result of heightened interest and the fact there is simply not enough housing to meet demand. When the Government issued their Housing White Paper at the start of February we stated how important it was for the industry to put forward robust solutions to really make a difference and it’s vital that building more affordable housing is at the very top of their agenda.”